EDP Program¶
Snapshot, not the authority
This page describes EDP's current challenge schedule and rewards.
The API is always authoritative - read gate_closure, start_datetime and
end_datetime from the challenge you are targeting rather than hard-coding
anything below.
Effective: 1 November 2026 · Resources: Spanish mFRR balancing market · Timezone: CET/CEST · Forecast variables: Q10, Q50, Q90
Forecast targets & data sources¶
EDP runs two resources on the Spanish mFRR (manual Frequency Restoration Reserve) balancing market: one for the activated energy, one for its price. Both are system-wide series for Spain, published by Red Eléctrica de España (REE) on its ESIOS platform.
Unlike the generation targets of the other programs, these are not power series and not bounded at zero. Read the unit and sign rules below before building a model: a forecast pipeline that clips at zero or assumes MW will score badly here.
spain_mfrr_energy¶
How much mFRR energy was activated in each interval, net of direction.
| Quantity | Net programmed mFRR energy (upward minus downward) |
| Unit | MWh, energy over the interval (not mean power) |
| Resolution | 15 min |
| Local time | Europe/Madrid (CET/CEST) |
| Boundary | Spain, one system-wide series as published by REE |
| Sign | Positive = net upward activation, negative = net downward |
Ground truth. ESIOS (Red Eléctrica de España), indicator 10250, net mFRR energy allocation, at quarter-hour resolution. It equals the programmed upward volume minus the programmed downward volume, so a single series carries both directions.
Your quantiles can, and often should, be negative
The target changes sign from one interval to the next. Submit Q10/Q50/Q90 on the same signed scale: a Q10 below zero is a normal, valid submission, and the platform accepts it as is.
spain_mfrr_price¶
The price paid for mFRR balancing energy in each interval.
| Quantity | Marginal price of programmed mFRR balancing-energy activation |
| Unit | EUR/MWh |
| Resolution | 15 min |
| Local time | Europe/Madrid (CET/CEST) |
| Boundary | Spain, one system-wide series as published by REE |
Ground truth. ESIOS (Red Eléctrica de España), indicator 2197, the merged marginal price for programmed mFRR activation (one series for both directions), at quarter-hour resolution.
Why many intervals read exactly zero
When no mFRR energy is activated in an interval, ESIOS publishes a price of
0 for it rather than leaving it empty. These zeros are real target values
and are scored like any other, so a good forecast has to predict whether
activation happens as well as its price.
How far back the price history goes
Spain moved its tertiary reserve to the European MARI platform in December 2024, and REE replaced its older directional price series with indicator 2197. The price history therefore starts on 10 December 2024 (local time); earlier mFRR price data uses a different market design and is not available on Predico. The energy series goes back to January 2022.
Revisions & settlement¶
Measurements are not final when first published. Both resources are refreshed every 15 minutes over the last two days, re-imported daily over a rolling 35-day window as ESIOS revises, then frozen after day 6 of the following month. A daily score can still move until the month's scores are locked, on day 7 of the following month at the latest (see Score recalculation); revisions after that point do not change the monthly ranking.
To pull the history yourself, see Downloading Raw Data.
Challenge schedule¶
Market sessions open every hour on the hour (see Sessions & Challenges). EDP publishes a single Day-Ahead (D+1) challenge per day for each resource:
| Category | Target window | Published at (gate closure, CET) |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Ahead (D+1) | The next calendar day (00:00 → 24:00 local). | 17:00 (day before target) |
No intraday or extended (D+N) challenges are published.
The first challenges target Sunday 1 November 2026: their gate closes on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 CET (16:00 UTC).
Madrid and Brussels share the same clock (CET/CEST), so the 17:00 gate is 17:00 in Spain too: 16:00 UTC in winter, 15:00 UTC in summer.
Live schedule
The table above is a snapshot of the current configuration. For the exact, current openings of a specific resource, open the Schedule page in your dashboard (https://predico.inesctec.pt/schedule, login required).
Eligibility & missed-day rules¶
- At most 5 missed days per month to remain eligible for the monthly league. Daily rewards remain available regardless.
- For each missed day, the day's peer 75th-percentile score is substituted into your monthly average.
Prize distribution¶
Each market resource has a €7,000 monthly prize pool, paid entirely to participating forecasters. The reward mechanism is identical to the Elia program (see Rewards). Like 50Hertz, EDP publishes only the Day-Ahead horizon, so the pool covers two envelopes rather than four.
The pool is split by track (deterministic vs probabilistic). With a single published horizon, each track is a single envelope:
| Track | Day-Ahead (D+1) | Track total |
|---|---|---|
| Deterministic (Q50 · RMSE) | €3,500 | €3,500 |
| Probabilistic (Q10/Q90 · MWI) | €3,500 | €3,500 |
| Horizon total | €7,000 | €7,000 |
A forecaster therefore competes for two independent €3,500 envelopes per resource each month, one per track. Each envelope is distributed exactly like a 50Hertz envelope (Elite, Daily, Challenger and Runner-Up shares, plus the €200 max-error bonus on the deterministic track): see How each €3,500 envelope is distributed for the per-rank breakdown.
Scores are computed in each resource's own unit: RMSE and MWI are in MWh
for spain_mfrr_energy and in EUR/MWh for spain_mfrr_price. Rankings are
per resource, so the two are never compared with each other.