Rewards¶
Once your forecasts are scored (see Evaluation), the platform ranks forecasters and distributes rewards. This page covers daily rankings, the monthly league, and prize distribution.
Rankings¶
Forecasters are ranked independently per track:
- Deterministic by RMSE.
- Probabilistic by MWI.
Each track produces a daily ranking and a monthly skill score. Rankings come in two views:
- Market rank — among eligible market forecasters only.
- Overall rank — across all forecasters (market + fixed-payment).
Daily rewards¶
Each day, the top 5 market forecasters in each track share that day's reward pool, with shares stepped sharply by rank.
- All three quantiles (Q10, Q50, Q90) required to be eligible.
- Daily rewards are independent of monthly league eligibility — exceeding the monthly missed-day allowance does not disqualify you from a day's rewards.
Tie-break
When two forecasters tie on the same daily score, the one with the better monthly average rank takes the higher daily position. This rewards consistent month-long performance.
Example
If you are 1st for RMSE and 3rd for MWI on a given day, you collect 40% of that day's deterministic pool + 18% of that day's probabilistic pool = 29% of the day's combined reward across both tracks.
Monthly league¶
At month-end, forecasters are tiered by their monthly average score. Each tier unlocks a different combination of reward streams.
Monthly league eligibility
- At most 5 missed days in the month — exceeding this allowance disqualifies you from monthly league rewards (Elite / Challenger / Runner-Up). Daily rewards remain available.
- For each missed day, the day's peer 75th-percentile score is substituted into your monthly average, dragging your score toward the worse end of the field.
- Account creation date does not affect league eligibility. Forecasters who register or start submitting partway through the month compete on the same calendar as everyone else. The penalty substitution above is the mechanism that accounts for absent days; no separate late-joiner exclusion applies.
A "missed day" is a day where your score was replaced by the peer-Q75 penalty — i.e. a day that failed the qualification rules. See Intraday Evaluation and Day-Ahead & Extended Evaluation for the per-horizon definition.
Prize distribution¶
Each market resource has a €7,000 monthly prize pool, paid entirely to participating forecasters.
Where the €7,000 goes¶
The pool is split first by track (deterministic vs probabilistic), then by forecast horizon (Intraday vs Day-Ahead):
| Track | Intraday | Day-Ahead (D+1) | Track total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deterministic (Q50 · RMSE) | €1,750 | €1,750 | €3,500 |
| Probabilistic (Q10/Q90 · MWI) | €1,750 | €1,750 | €3,500 |
| Horizon total | €3,500 | €3,500 | €7,000 |
A forecaster therefore competes for four independent €1,750 envelopes per resource each month — one per (track, horizon) combination. Each envelope is distributed identically (see below), so the rules only need to be understood once.
Extended (D+N) horizons are unpaid for now
Extended challenges (D+2 through D+N) are open for participation but carry no prize money in the current period. The market owner will add them to the paid distribution once the platform exits its preview phase. Submitting still helps you build a track record — your scores count toward the public leaderboard regardless.
How each €1,750 envelope is distributed¶
The probabilistic envelope absorbs the max-error allocation into a larger Elite pot (€875 vs €775). Daily, Challenger, and Runner-Up amounts are identical across both tracks.
The full breakdown by league and monthly rank:
Deterministic (Q50 · RMSE)¶
Per €1,750 envelope — applied once for Intraday and once for Day-Ahead.
| League | Monthly Rank | Budget | Budget Allocation | Extra | Daily Rewards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 1st | €775 | €280 (36%) |
€100 to the Elite forecaster with the lowest peak error (split equally if tied) |
Daily pool: €500 per envelope, per month. Split evenly across the days of the month, then distributed to the top 5 by daily rank:
|
| 2nd | €180 (23%) | ||||
| 3rd | €125 (16%) | ||||
| 4th | €100 (13%) | ||||
| 5th | €90 (12%) | ||||
| Challenger | 6th | €350 | €70 each Evenly split (20% each) |
— | |
| 7th | |||||
| 8th | |||||
| 9th | |||||
| 10th | |||||
| Runner-Up | 11th | €25 | €25 (100%) | — | |
| Outside | 12th+ | €0 | — | — |
Probabilistic (Q10/Q90 · MWI)¶
Per €1,750 envelope — applied once for Intraday and once for Day-Ahead.
| League | Monthly Rank | Budget | Budget Allocation | Extra | Daily Rewards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 1st | €875 | €300 (34%) | — (deterministic track only) |
Daily pool: €500 per envelope, per month. Split evenly across the days of the month, then distributed to the top 5 by daily rank:
|
| 2nd | €200 (23%) | ||||
| 3rd | €150 (17%) | ||||
| 4th | €120 (14%) | ||||
| 5th | €105 (12%) | ||||
| Challenger | 6th | €350 | €70 each Evenly split (20% each) |
||
| 7th | |||||
| 8th | |||||
| 9th | |||||
| 10th | |||||
| Runner-Up | 11th | €25 | €25 (100%) | ||
| Outside | 12th+ | €0 | — |
Why a stepped Elite split and a flat Challenger split?
By design, the worst Elite forecaster (rank 5: €90 Det / €105 Prob) still earns more than any Challenger forecaster (€70 each, ranks 6–10). This rewards consistent month-long top performance over a single strong day.
Fewer than 11 forecasters?
Unallocated league positions roll over to that envelope's daily-reward pool. Example: with 8 active market forecasters, the unassigned Challenger League and Runner-Up shares are added to the day pool.
Payment¶
Monthly payments are processed within the first weeks of the following month. Payment thresholds, accepted regions, and currency are deployment-specific — see the Participation Rulebook for legal conditions.
Viewing your scores¶
- API — see Listing Session Submission Scores.
- Web dashboard — https://predico.inesctec.pt/dashboard. The Market Scores report separates market vs. non-market participants so you can compute your market rank.